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Tesla’s Q3 Delivery Statistics Were Revised Lower Before Announcement

In a few days, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) will release its third-quarter delivery data. Wall Street experts anticipate lower figures than initially anticipated. The initial estimate of 473,000 units was revised down by 2.5% to 461,000 units based on the consensus of analysts that FactSet monitors.

Analyst Pierre Feragu of New Street Research projects an even lower number, perhaps 438,000 units, and attributes this deficit primarily to manufacturing shutdowns. Compared to the 466,000 units delivered in the second quarter, this would indicate a drop of about 6%. That would still be a rise of almost 27% nevertheless, in contrast to the third quarter of 2022 when about 344,000 units were supplied.

Tesla temporarily suspended operations in the third quarter in order to upgrade machinery at its factories, which led to lower production levels. Furthermore, sales of the earlier Model 3 sedans dropped when the revised Model 3 was introduced in China and Europe.

Notwithstanding these difficulties, institutional and individual investors are apparently ready for a delivery aim miss. The sentiments of smaller investors are becoming more significant to institutional investors due to high retail ownership, which now owns over 40% of Tesla’s shares.

The 442,000 unit delivery estimate provided by prominent retail investor Troy Teslike is in line with Ferragu’s forecast. Ferragu retains his Buy rating and $350 target price for Tesla stock, indicating that he is still enthusiastic despite the lower expectations. Although he says that things seem stable, he does not see this having a favorable effect on Tesla’s shares.

Ferragu bases his long-term projections for Tesla on the company’s sales volumes increasing by roughly 50% yearly over the ensuing few years. He also projects that Tesla will raise its gross profit margins in the auto industry to 25% after seeing a drop as a result of recent price reductions.

Monday’s premarket trading saw a 1.7% decrease in Tesla’s stock, which was trading at $240.79, and a 0.4% decline in S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures. Following a decline in delivery forecasts, the stock has underperformed, with shares plummeting 11% over the last week.

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